How the numbers add up
Every figure on this page, in five steps
All of it comes from two inputs: the land-cover map and the December 2025 working zones.
Nothing below is an estimate of future planting — it is what the ground looks like today, sorted.
1 · Sort every hectare of the zones
2 · Split the plantable land by who has already planted it
This split uses Perhutani's compartment map of May 2026, which covers 98 % of the zones. How much counts as
already planted depends on how far back the records are trusted — which is the one real choice in the whole
calculation:
The 324.5 ha between them carries a planting record from before 2016 but still reads as open ground on
2024–2026 imagery. Across the whole compartment map only 47 % of recorded planting shows canopy today — 41 %
for pine, 36 % for rimba campur — so that land was probably harvested, failed or encroached rather than being
too young. A field check settles it compartment by compartment.
3 · The most forest the zones can ever hold
1,366.1 wooded + 2,266.3 plantable = 3,632.4 ha. The other 211.9 ha is paddy and villages.
So even after planting everything: 3,800 − 3,632.4 = 167.6 ha short.
4 · From area to one continuous forest
Adding up hectares is not the same as having them in one piece. Counting blocks — pieces joined when the gap
between them is 30 m or less, never across the reservoir:
3,492 is less than the 3,632 in step 3 because about 140 ha stays in separate small blocks. So for 3,800 ha
in one piece: 3,800 − 3,492 = 308 ha must come from outside the zones.
5 · Why you see two different gaps — 350 and 308
They measure different ground:
The 2014 map lies inside the zones, so the zones take in extra ground the 2014 map never covered: that is the
180 ha difference between 3,451.8 and 3,632.4. Both figures are right; they answer different questions, which
is why picking one to report is a decision the project still has to take.
The three progress percentages
All three use the same 489.8 ha of planting delivered in 2023–2025, divided by different things:
- 489.8 ÷ 3,800 = 12.9 % against the BMP target;
- 489.8 ÷ (489.8 + 1,198.3) = 29.0 % against delivery plus what is left (24.3 % under C);
- 361.9 ÷ (361.9 + 1,198.3) = 23.2 % using only the part of the planting the map can see
(19.2 % under C).
And the planting plan's net figure
1,198.3 still to plant = 885.9 on gentle slopes + 312.4 on steep slopes. Take off 38.7 ha inside the
construction plan and 1,159.6 ha is left: tier 1 317.9 + tier 2 827.0 + tier 3 14.4. Under scenario C the
same arithmetic gives 1,478.4 ha net: 557.4 + 895.6 + 24.8.